The EIA report released on June 1 showed that last week (May 28-June 1) US crude oil inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, a new high of 22 years since 1990. In the past May, the price of New York crude oil fell sharply by 17%, and it was the highest monthly drop since December 2008. How does this affect the polyester filament industry chain?
Lack of support for the collapse of crude oil to make PTA avoid the pits. Driven by crude oil, recent naphtha, PX, PTA prices have fallen significantly, giving polyester filaments an overall cost impact on the industry chain. The plunge in crude oil made PX prices no longer resilient. PX prices fell 13% in a month. PX Asia contract prices were settled at 1355 U.S. dollars in June, 195 U.S. dollars lower than May, and Sinopec PX June listed prices were 10,800 U.S./ton, compared with May. Low 1000 yuan/ton. On the other hand, domestic PX is facing a situation of oversupply in the short term. According to April PTA production accounting, there was a surplus of about 130,000 tons of domestic PX in the month. The monitoring data shows that in the coming months, there will be new PX capacity release in the country, domestic PX supply will loose in the short term, and PX production profits will be considerable. It is expected that PX prices will still have a lot of decline in the later period. space. The transmission of prices on the industrial chain has added to the already fragile PTA. In the past month, the PTA1209 contract fell by 790 points, a decrease of 9.23%, and fell below the November 2011 low.
The industry believes that the PTA upstream of the polyester filaments in the price drop in May, although the impact, but the company's production profits have improved compared to the previous period, PTA manufacturers operating rate is higher. In 2012, it was a year when the domestic PTA production capacity expanded significantly. When the price of PTA was low, most new production capacity was released and delayed.
From the perspective of the overall situation of the PTA device, the delay in the release of new capacity in the previous period was mainly affected by the weak PTA price and the low or loss of corporate profits. Once the spot price appears to be improving or the profits of the enterprise have been repaired in the later period, the pressure for later production will gradually increase. . Under the background of new production capacity, despite the current low profitability of the company's production, it is difficult to realize the production capacity even if there is a willingness to maintain its own market share.
Therefore, from the perspective of the late installations, the market supply pressure in June is still relatively large. Compared with the price of **, the spot price of PTA has significantly decreased, but the overall decline and absolute amount is still less than ** price.
Lack of demand Demand Buyers cautiously made the market even worse. From the monitoring data, we can see that downstream weaving manufacturers have apparently dropped their raw material purchases. It is understood that due to the unsatisfactory start-up conditions of the downstream textile industry, the demand for polyester filaments has also dropped significantly, which has caused most of the production and sales rates of polyester filament manufacturers to decline by a certain extent. Market sales are still relatively flat. . This makes the adjustment of the price of polyester filament can be described as a matter of course.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China’s textile and apparel exports in April were US$18.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. From January to April, textiles and apparel exported a total of USD 68.82 billion, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year. According to statistics, China's textile and apparel exports dropped from US$21.5 billion in January to less than US$10 billion in February, and rebounded to US$18.8 billion in March. Both exports in January and February showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 13.4% increase in March. In April, negative growth occurred again. The Canton Fair, which is praised as the “weather vane†of China’s foreign trade exports, also conveyed relevant information for us: At the 111th Canton Fair, with a slight increase in the number of attendees, the cumulative export turnover decreased by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively. From the perspective of the Canton Fair turnover, there are too many short orders, and there are still too few long orders, which will cause certain pressure on the filament market. As the profits have been repaired, if the downstream downstream purchases are weak, the filament market will still be under pressure.
The market atmosphere of polyester filaments in Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, and Guangdong was deserted, and corporate prices continued to drop overcast. Prices of all varieties fell across the board, and the focus of transactions also declined. Market turnover was insufficient. The rate of production and sales of enterprises is still maintained at around 70%. As the inventory of enterprises continues to increase and the pressure on inventory increases, the low-price shipment phenomenon gradually increases due to the consideration of financial pressure. Some experts believe that the reasons for the current market situation are: First, the raw material market under the impact of the PTA market negative factors, to accelerate the decline; Second, the downstream market into the off-season, lack of corporate orders, the industry downtime rate increased, the polyester filament The purchase volume is insufficient.
The industry believes that the main factor in the price drop of polyester filaments is that the preliminary orders for replenishment in the market are basically in place, and there are basically no follow-up orders. This causes the weavers to generally look down on the market outlook and become more cautious about the purchase of raw materials.
From the point of view of the up and down parades, the drop in the price of upstream raw materials directly affected the market conditions of polyester filaments, so that the market conditions of polyester filaments could not be supported by the upstream raw materials to obtain support, and the downstream did not support them. Therefore, since June, polyester Filament prices have continued to drop (from May 7 to June 6 polyester filament market monitoring table).
For the market, some experts analyzed that the “sustained decline†in the upstream raw materials had a greater blow to the confidence in the polyester yarn market, and the sales prospects in the downstream distribution market were gloomy. The operating rates of the weaving companies and the shelling enterprises all declined, making polyester Filament's market will show a situation where the house leaks evenly and rainy, most professionals believe that the market price outlook for polyester filament will continue to decline.
Lack of support for the collapse of crude oil to make PTA avoid the pits. Driven by crude oil, recent naphtha, PX, PTA prices have fallen significantly, giving polyester filaments an overall cost impact on the industry chain. The plunge in crude oil made PX prices no longer resilient. PX prices fell 13% in a month. PX Asia contract prices were settled at 1355 U.S. dollars in June, 195 U.S. dollars lower than May, and Sinopec PX June listed prices were 10,800 U.S./ton, compared with May. Low 1000 yuan/ton. On the other hand, domestic PX is facing a situation of oversupply in the short term. According to April PTA production accounting, there was a surplus of about 130,000 tons of domestic PX in the month. The monitoring data shows that in the coming months, there will be new PX capacity release in the country, domestic PX supply will loose in the short term, and PX production profits will be considerable. It is expected that PX prices will still have a lot of decline in the later period. space. The transmission of prices on the industrial chain has added to the already fragile PTA. In the past month, the PTA1209 contract fell by 790 points, a decrease of 9.23%, and fell below the November 2011 low.
The industry believes that the PTA upstream of the polyester filaments in the price drop in May, although the impact, but the company's production profits have improved compared to the previous period, PTA manufacturers operating rate is higher. In 2012, it was a year when the domestic PTA production capacity expanded significantly. When the price of PTA was low, most new production capacity was released and delayed.
From the perspective of the overall situation of the PTA device, the delay in the release of new capacity in the previous period was mainly affected by the weak PTA price and the low or loss of corporate profits. Once the spot price appears to be improving or the profits of the enterprise have been repaired in the later period, the pressure for later production will gradually increase. . Under the background of new production capacity, despite the current low profitability of the company's production, it is difficult to realize the production capacity even if there is a willingness to maintain its own market share.
Therefore, from the perspective of the late installations, the market supply pressure in June is still relatively large. Compared with the price of **, the spot price of PTA has significantly decreased, but the overall decline and absolute amount is still less than ** price.
Lack of demand Demand Buyers cautiously made the market even worse. From the monitoring data, we can see that downstream weaving manufacturers have apparently dropped their raw material purchases. It is understood that due to the unsatisfactory start-up conditions of the downstream textile industry, the demand for polyester filaments has also dropped significantly, which has caused most of the production and sales rates of polyester filament manufacturers to decline by a certain extent. Market sales are still relatively flat. . This makes the adjustment of the price of polyester filament can be described as a matter of course.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China’s textile and apparel exports in April were US$18.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. From January to April, textiles and apparel exported a total of USD 68.82 billion, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year. According to statistics, China's textile and apparel exports dropped from US$21.5 billion in January to less than US$10 billion in February, and rebounded to US$18.8 billion in March. Both exports in January and February showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 13.4% increase in March. In April, negative growth occurred again. The Canton Fair, which is praised as the “weather vane†of China’s foreign trade exports, also conveyed relevant information for us: At the 111th Canton Fair, with a slight increase in the number of attendees, the cumulative export turnover decreased by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively. From the perspective of the Canton Fair turnover, there are too many short orders, and there are still too few long orders, which will cause certain pressure on the filament market. As the profits have been repaired, if the downstream downstream purchases are weak, the filament market will still be under pressure.
The market atmosphere of polyester filaments in Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, and Guangdong was deserted, and corporate prices continued to drop overcast. Prices of all varieties fell across the board, and the focus of transactions also declined. Market turnover was insufficient. The rate of production and sales of enterprises is still maintained at around 70%. As the inventory of enterprises continues to increase and the pressure on inventory increases, the low-price shipment phenomenon gradually increases due to the consideration of financial pressure. Some experts believe that the reasons for the current market situation are: First, the raw material market under the impact of the PTA market negative factors, to accelerate the decline; Second, the downstream market into the off-season, lack of corporate orders, the industry downtime rate increased, the polyester filament The purchase volume is insufficient.
The industry believes that the main factor in the price drop of polyester filaments is that the preliminary orders for replenishment in the market are basically in place, and there are basically no follow-up orders. This causes the weavers to generally look down on the market outlook and become more cautious about the purchase of raw materials.
From the point of view of the up and down parades, the drop in the price of upstream raw materials directly affected the market conditions of polyester filaments, so that the market conditions of polyester filaments could not be supported by the upstream raw materials to obtain support, and the downstream did not support them. Therefore, since June, polyester Filament prices have continued to drop (from May 7 to June 6 polyester filament market monitoring table).
For the market, some experts analyzed that the “sustained decline†in the upstream raw materials had a greater blow to the confidence in the polyester yarn market, and the sales prospects in the downstream distribution market were gloomy. The operating rates of the weaving companies and the shelling enterprises all declined, making polyester Filament's market will show a situation where the house leaks evenly and rainy, most professionals believe that the market price outlook for polyester filament will continue to decline.
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