In the past month or two, the reporter heard that many chemical fiber companies reported difficulties in operating and the prices of products dropped rapidly. However, according to the main data of the chemical fiber industry from January to September released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the situation is still relatively optimistic. There is a contradiction between macro data and micro-feelings. Does it mean that the inflection point of the industry operation has arrived? What are the main reasons for the changes in the market? With so many difficulties, how can companies embark on a new path of development? With these questions, the reporter recently rushed to Shanghai to look for the answer at the "8th China International Polyester Forum" and found that the lack of demand was the "killer" of the current market.
From November 10 to November 11, the "8th China International Polyester Forum" hosted by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and China Chemical Fiber Corporation, hosted by CCFEI and Tecnon Orbichem, was scheduled to open in Shanghai as scheduled. Held. After years of accumulation, the forum has enjoyed high popularity. Participants actively explored and discussed new ideas for analyzing the status and trends of the market. There are always new changes that have spread rapidly through this platform.
Since September, “Sweet Scene†has disappeared I remember that in June and July of this year, the reporter went to Jiangsu Wujiang, a region where the textile and chemical fiber industry was developed, to understand the situation. Local people reported that “the first half of this year was better than the same period last year.†However, the good situation at that time did not cause many surprises. The industry people were worried about the situation in the second half of the year. The biggest reason for this anxiety was that at the time, the external demand was sluggish, and the inventory of cloth factories and garment factories was under pressure. In addition, due to factors such as macroeconomic policies, the cost of enterprises has increased since the beginning of this year, financing difficulties have increased, coupled with the superimposed effects of factors such as the increase in raw materials and labor costs, the industry situation has been difficult to smooth.
This is indeed the case. If the chemical fiber industry, especially the polyester polyester industry, was still immersed in the “sweet scene†since last year, the days after September would be a little sad. In this forum, many people pointed out that the average selling price of polyester filament fell by 2,000 yuan/ton from 17,000 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton, and the current price for more than one month since September 24. It is still unknown whether the bottom appears. The industry generally believes that the continued decline in demand may cause polyester polyester prices to continue to decline.
The demand for textile and chemical fiber is highly correlated with macroeconomics. According to Zheng Junlin, secretary general of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, most companies believe that the current economic environment is not much better than the financial crisis. Although the fundamental causes of the dilemma are very different, the result is that the demand declines and the market confidence weakens. According to Zheng Junlin, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of the industrial added value above designated size, the export value of industrial exports above designated size, and fixed asset investment all showed a quarter-on-quarter decline. The total retail sales of social consumer goods, which have a significant impact on textile demand, declined month by month in recent months. The actual comparable growth rate in August was only 10% higher than the same period of last year, especially after deducting more than double the growth in product prices. The growth is minimal.
At the same time, if we analyze the cyclical laws of the operation of the chemical fiber industry, the conclusions obtained are consistent with the current market performance. Zheng Junlin pointed out that after more than a decade of rapid development, the operating cycle of the chemical fiber industry has been shortened from 4 to 5 years to 2 to 3 years. After experiencing recovering growth in the first half of 2009 and now two and a half years, it is normal to enter the decline phase.
The lack of demand from the lower reaches of the upward trend Reporters learned that in the fourth quarter, the textile industry experienced a rapid decline in orders, mainly due to the decline in downstream apparel and home textile factory orders, and the trend of conduction from downstream to upper reaches. .
Meng Hongjun, general manager of Jiangsu Hengli Chemical Fiber Sales Department, told reporters that the current level of chemical fiber plant inventory is still relatively normal, but the terminal clothing, fabric companies, inventory is too large, the downstream operating rate is insufficient, it is likely to affect the chemical fiber industry next year's orders. According to statistics, the operating rate of downstream garments and fabric factories is only about 40%, and factories generally do not receive orders. Shi Qiaoguan, deputy director of the East China Office of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, who is familiar with the market, also said that the operating rate of looms in the Wujiang region is still acceptable, and that around 60% of the looms in the other weaving industries are very low. Some weaving factories have already paid workers 30% off wages due to lack of orders and insufficient cash flow. Shi Qiaouan also pointed out that the lack of downstream demand has gradually spread to polyester polyester enterprises, and some chemical fiber plant inventory has gradually reached more than 20 days and is still increasing.
For the bottom-up dilemma of the textile industry, Meng Hongjun believes that the fundamental reason lies in the imbalance between supply and demand. This is due to the mismatch between the geometric growth of the upstream supply and the linear growth of terminal consumption. According to him, the production and sales of the chemical fiber industry from January to September are both prosperous, mainly benefiting from a large increase in the production capacity of the looms downstream, but the market environment after the sudden change in September, the new looms manufacturers found that the product is difficult to sell, can only be forced to stop , Which in turn affected the purchase and price of chemical fiber raw materials. The reason for the geometric growth in upstream supply is due to the fact that companies are not far behind in the new round of expansion, and they hope to make full use of the advantages of the technical equipment, and also because of the demand for apparel inventory that was formed in the short term last year. The illusion that the demand caused by the upstream companies is multiplied. In 2009, the new production capacity of chemical fiber was about 1 million tons. In 2011, the new production capacity reached 3.7 million tons. It is estimated that the new production capacity in 2012 will reach 7 million tons or more, which is due to factors such as the shortage of key equipment parts and components. The portion of new production capacity that has been postponed or suspended. However, with regard to the end-user demand of the common people, the actual consumption is linearly and steadily increasing due to the objective conditions such as purchasing power and wardrobe capacity. In addition, the appreciation of *** weakened external demand, and export orders were shifted to lower-cost regions such as Vietnam and India.
Polyester chain changes from dumbbell shape to olive shape The geometric growth of chemical fiber production represented by polyester polyester is currently held by industry insiders. Some people believe that, unlike the previous situation in which demand determines supply, product differentiation and market diversification under the catalysis of technological advances have increased the impact of supply on demand. In other words, the rapid growth of supply, based on the expansion of the application field, can stimulate demand growth. This type of person thinks that the most typical example is that when Hengli Group started production of 200,000 tons of polyester industrial yarn, which accounted for nearly 30% of the industry's total production capacity, it was frightened by the industry as a monster. However, in the end, 200,000 tons of production capacity was absorbed by the market due to the expansion of industrial wire applications and the increase in usage. Even 300,000 tons of capacity expanded by other companies was subsequently accepted by the market. There is also a phenomenon that can be used to prove that the previous polyester polyester plant invited downstream customers to eat, and now many customers in turn invite polyester companies, indicating that even if the supply is greatly increased, the supplier's influence in the market is still increasing. .
But not all people are so optimistic. Frederic VANHOUTE, President of the European International Rayon and Synthetic Fibers Committee, is a representative of the view of overcapacity. In the reporter's impression, people from the European Union participated in the China Chemical Fibre Conference many times, and all of them are exposing issues such as the rapid expansion of Asian production capacity and the impact of imported products in the EU and other regions. Frederic VANHOUTE confessed that there is a serious excess of global polyester capacity and there is still a tendency to deteriorate. He called on the world chemical fiber industry to make prudent and comprehensive considerations from the perspectives of investment, trade, environment, and innovation, and jointly promote the healthy development of the global fiber industry with responsible market behavior. Objectively speaking, excluding some stance problems, some of his viewpoints are of warning and enlightening significance to the industry.
After all, polyester polyester is just a link in the industry chain. To judge whether the current expansion of an enterprise is appropriate, it is still necessary to put it in the industry chain for overall consideration. Xu Zhilong, an industry analyst at Zhejiang Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd., pointed out that the industry chain structure including PX, PTA, and polyester links is changing from dumbbell shape to olive shape. The main reason is the substantial increase in domestic PTA production capacity. The data shows that in 2011 global PTA production capacity reached 54 million tons, and China will exceed 20 million tons. The domestic large-scale polyester enterprises represented by Hengyi, Rongsheng, Hengli, Shaoxing Far East, Sanfangxiang, Tongkun, etc., are continuously extending to the lower reaches to implement the integration of the industrial chain. After the new PTA installations of many companies are put into operation, in addition to meeting their own needs, there will be a large number of product take-outs. In contrast, although MEG, another major raw material of polyester, has emerged a new technology route such as coal chemical industry, due to factors such as policy and technology maturity, there is almost no new capacity to put into operation in 2011-2012, and it will also rely heavily on import.
Driven by Innovation-Driven Future Development Models While enterprises are analyzing the current status and looking forward to the future market in a down-to-earth manner, many people also look up and “look up at the starry sky†to see how the future industry road should go.
During the "15th Five-Year" and "Eleventh Five-Year" periods, the development of the chemical fiber industry was mainly driven by technological progress, and the growth model was quantitative; during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry development will be more dependent on innovation-driven, and the development model will shift to quality. Benefit type, energy saving and environmental protection type.†Zheng Junlin’s remarks impressed the reporter. It is undeniable that technological progress is still an indispensable engine for the future development of the industry, but the word "innovation" is particularly important. Industry experts pointed out earlier that when the world's textile and chemical fiber production capacity is largely transferred to China, and the textile industry base of other countries and regions is becoming increasingly thin, they have gradually lost the incentive to develop new technologies and new products. Therefore, China’s textile industry has to adopt the model of introduction, digestion, absorption, and innovation since the reform and opening up as the main method of technological progress, and there is no possibility that independent innovation is imminent.
Zheng Junlin expounded the connotation of innovation drive in several aspects: in equipment technology innovation, it is necessary to achieve breakthroughs in major equipment and key equipment; in process products, new products and processes are developed that meet market demands and even lead demand; In terms of mechanism innovation, modern enterprise system construction, overall industry operation mechanism, deep cooperation in production, research, and mergers and acquisitions, and mergers and acquisitions all require innovative thinking; in terms of management and marketing, we must establish a modern management model and adjust past “point-to-point†marketing. Industry chain marketing.
At present, the macroeconomic downturn has filled the industry with pessimism, but Shi Qiaoguan told reporters that the bad situation is a bad thing for the company, and it may be a good thing for the industry. His view is based on the adverse effects of harsh environment. When the situation soars, companies that make conventional products will make money, they will not be more focused on product innovation; and when the market continues to slump, all kinds of pressure will force companies to focus on product development and innovation. This is why a large number of new products and technologies have emerged after the crisis, and awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction has been significantly enhanced.
On November 8, Australia passed the "carbon tax" bill proposed by the Girard government. At this point, this controversial bill became a law. Australia is the country with the highest per capita emission of greenhouse gases in advanced economies. The implementation of the “carbon tax†will make Australia one of the countries with the largest carbon emission restrictions outside of Europe. When carbon tariffs increasingly become the new choice for carbon emission reduction in various countries, and it is very likely to form new trade protection measures, the Chinese chemical fiber industry that accounts for more than 60% of the world's total production capacity must re-examine the relationship between development and environmental protection. The two solutions to the coordinated development.
From November 10 to November 11, the "8th China International Polyester Forum" hosted by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and China Chemical Fiber Corporation, hosted by CCFEI and Tecnon Orbichem, was scheduled to open in Shanghai as scheduled. Held. After years of accumulation, the forum has enjoyed high popularity. Participants actively explored and discussed new ideas for analyzing the status and trends of the market. There are always new changes that have spread rapidly through this platform.
Since September, “Sweet Scene†has disappeared I remember that in June and July of this year, the reporter went to Jiangsu Wujiang, a region where the textile and chemical fiber industry was developed, to understand the situation. Local people reported that “the first half of this year was better than the same period last year.†However, the good situation at that time did not cause many surprises. The industry people were worried about the situation in the second half of the year. The biggest reason for this anxiety was that at the time, the external demand was sluggish, and the inventory of cloth factories and garment factories was under pressure. In addition, due to factors such as macroeconomic policies, the cost of enterprises has increased since the beginning of this year, financing difficulties have increased, coupled with the superimposed effects of factors such as the increase in raw materials and labor costs, the industry situation has been difficult to smooth.
This is indeed the case. If the chemical fiber industry, especially the polyester polyester industry, was still immersed in the “sweet scene†since last year, the days after September would be a little sad. In this forum, many people pointed out that the average selling price of polyester filament fell by 2,000 yuan/ton from 17,000 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton, and the current price for more than one month since September 24. It is still unknown whether the bottom appears. The industry generally believes that the continued decline in demand may cause polyester polyester prices to continue to decline.
The demand for textile and chemical fiber is highly correlated with macroeconomics. According to Zheng Junlin, secretary general of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, most companies believe that the current economic environment is not much better than the financial crisis. Although the fundamental causes of the dilemma are very different, the result is that the demand declines and the market confidence weakens. According to Zheng Junlin, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of the industrial added value above designated size, the export value of industrial exports above designated size, and fixed asset investment all showed a quarter-on-quarter decline. The total retail sales of social consumer goods, which have a significant impact on textile demand, declined month by month in recent months. The actual comparable growth rate in August was only 10% higher than the same period of last year, especially after deducting more than double the growth in product prices. The growth is minimal.
At the same time, if we analyze the cyclical laws of the operation of the chemical fiber industry, the conclusions obtained are consistent with the current market performance. Zheng Junlin pointed out that after more than a decade of rapid development, the operating cycle of the chemical fiber industry has been shortened from 4 to 5 years to 2 to 3 years. After experiencing recovering growth in the first half of 2009 and now two and a half years, it is normal to enter the decline phase.
The lack of demand from the lower reaches of the upward trend Reporters learned that in the fourth quarter, the textile industry experienced a rapid decline in orders, mainly due to the decline in downstream apparel and home textile factory orders, and the trend of conduction from downstream to upper reaches. .
Meng Hongjun, general manager of Jiangsu Hengli Chemical Fiber Sales Department, told reporters that the current level of chemical fiber plant inventory is still relatively normal, but the terminal clothing, fabric companies, inventory is too large, the downstream operating rate is insufficient, it is likely to affect the chemical fiber industry next year's orders. According to statistics, the operating rate of downstream garments and fabric factories is only about 40%, and factories generally do not receive orders. Shi Qiaoguan, deputy director of the East China Office of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, who is familiar with the market, also said that the operating rate of looms in the Wujiang region is still acceptable, and that around 60% of the looms in the other weaving industries are very low. Some weaving factories have already paid workers 30% off wages due to lack of orders and insufficient cash flow. Shi Qiaouan also pointed out that the lack of downstream demand has gradually spread to polyester polyester enterprises, and some chemical fiber plant inventory has gradually reached more than 20 days and is still increasing.
For the bottom-up dilemma of the textile industry, Meng Hongjun believes that the fundamental reason lies in the imbalance between supply and demand. This is due to the mismatch between the geometric growth of the upstream supply and the linear growth of terminal consumption. According to him, the production and sales of the chemical fiber industry from January to September are both prosperous, mainly benefiting from a large increase in the production capacity of the looms downstream, but the market environment after the sudden change in September, the new looms manufacturers found that the product is difficult to sell, can only be forced to stop , Which in turn affected the purchase and price of chemical fiber raw materials. The reason for the geometric growth in upstream supply is due to the fact that companies are not far behind in the new round of expansion, and they hope to make full use of the advantages of the technical equipment, and also because of the demand for apparel inventory that was formed in the short term last year. The illusion that the demand caused by the upstream companies is multiplied. In 2009, the new production capacity of chemical fiber was about 1 million tons. In 2011, the new production capacity reached 3.7 million tons. It is estimated that the new production capacity in 2012 will reach 7 million tons or more, which is due to factors such as the shortage of key equipment parts and components. The portion of new production capacity that has been postponed or suspended. However, with regard to the end-user demand of the common people, the actual consumption is linearly and steadily increasing due to the objective conditions such as purchasing power and wardrobe capacity. In addition, the appreciation of *** weakened external demand, and export orders were shifted to lower-cost regions such as Vietnam and India.
Polyester chain changes from dumbbell shape to olive shape The geometric growth of chemical fiber production represented by polyester polyester is currently held by industry insiders. Some people believe that, unlike the previous situation in which demand determines supply, product differentiation and market diversification under the catalysis of technological advances have increased the impact of supply on demand. In other words, the rapid growth of supply, based on the expansion of the application field, can stimulate demand growth. This type of person thinks that the most typical example is that when Hengli Group started production of 200,000 tons of polyester industrial yarn, which accounted for nearly 30% of the industry's total production capacity, it was frightened by the industry as a monster. However, in the end, 200,000 tons of production capacity was absorbed by the market due to the expansion of industrial wire applications and the increase in usage. Even 300,000 tons of capacity expanded by other companies was subsequently accepted by the market. There is also a phenomenon that can be used to prove that the previous polyester polyester plant invited downstream customers to eat, and now many customers in turn invite polyester companies, indicating that even if the supply is greatly increased, the supplier's influence in the market is still increasing. .
But not all people are so optimistic. Frederic VANHOUTE, President of the European International Rayon and Synthetic Fibers Committee, is a representative of the view of overcapacity. In the reporter's impression, people from the European Union participated in the China Chemical Fibre Conference many times, and all of them are exposing issues such as the rapid expansion of Asian production capacity and the impact of imported products in the EU and other regions. Frederic VANHOUTE confessed that there is a serious excess of global polyester capacity and there is still a tendency to deteriorate. He called on the world chemical fiber industry to make prudent and comprehensive considerations from the perspectives of investment, trade, environment, and innovation, and jointly promote the healthy development of the global fiber industry with responsible market behavior. Objectively speaking, excluding some stance problems, some of his viewpoints are of warning and enlightening significance to the industry.
After all, polyester polyester is just a link in the industry chain. To judge whether the current expansion of an enterprise is appropriate, it is still necessary to put it in the industry chain for overall consideration. Xu Zhilong, an industry analyst at Zhejiang Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd., pointed out that the industry chain structure including PX, PTA, and polyester links is changing from dumbbell shape to olive shape. The main reason is the substantial increase in domestic PTA production capacity. The data shows that in 2011 global PTA production capacity reached 54 million tons, and China will exceed 20 million tons. The domestic large-scale polyester enterprises represented by Hengyi, Rongsheng, Hengli, Shaoxing Far East, Sanfangxiang, Tongkun, etc., are continuously extending to the lower reaches to implement the integration of the industrial chain. After the new PTA installations of many companies are put into operation, in addition to meeting their own needs, there will be a large number of product take-outs. In contrast, although MEG, another major raw material of polyester, has emerged a new technology route such as coal chemical industry, due to factors such as policy and technology maturity, there is almost no new capacity to put into operation in 2011-2012, and it will also rely heavily on import.
Driven by Innovation-Driven Future Development Models While enterprises are analyzing the current status and looking forward to the future market in a down-to-earth manner, many people also look up and “look up at the starry sky†to see how the future industry road should go.
During the "15th Five-Year" and "Eleventh Five-Year" periods, the development of the chemical fiber industry was mainly driven by technological progress, and the growth model was quantitative; during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry development will be more dependent on innovation-driven, and the development model will shift to quality. Benefit type, energy saving and environmental protection type.†Zheng Junlin’s remarks impressed the reporter. It is undeniable that technological progress is still an indispensable engine for the future development of the industry, but the word "innovation" is particularly important. Industry experts pointed out earlier that when the world's textile and chemical fiber production capacity is largely transferred to China, and the textile industry base of other countries and regions is becoming increasingly thin, they have gradually lost the incentive to develop new technologies and new products. Therefore, China’s textile industry has to adopt the model of introduction, digestion, absorption, and innovation since the reform and opening up as the main method of technological progress, and there is no possibility that independent innovation is imminent.
Zheng Junlin expounded the connotation of innovation drive in several aspects: in equipment technology innovation, it is necessary to achieve breakthroughs in major equipment and key equipment; in process products, new products and processes are developed that meet market demands and even lead demand; In terms of mechanism innovation, modern enterprise system construction, overall industry operation mechanism, deep cooperation in production, research, and mergers and acquisitions, and mergers and acquisitions all require innovative thinking; in terms of management and marketing, we must establish a modern management model and adjust past “point-to-point†marketing. Industry chain marketing.
At present, the macroeconomic downturn has filled the industry with pessimism, but Shi Qiaoguan told reporters that the bad situation is a bad thing for the company, and it may be a good thing for the industry. His view is based on the adverse effects of harsh environment. When the situation soars, companies that make conventional products will make money, they will not be more focused on product innovation; and when the market continues to slump, all kinds of pressure will force companies to focus on product development and innovation. This is why a large number of new products and technologies have emerged after the crisis, and awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction has been significantly enhanced.
On November 8, Australia passed the "carbon tax" bill proposed by the Girard government. At this point, this controversial bill became a law. Australia is the country with the highest per capita emission of greenhouse gases in advanced economies. The implementation of the “carbon tax†will make Australia one of the countries with the largest carbon emission restrictions outside of Europe. When carbon tariffs increasingly become the new choice for carbon emission reduction in various countries, and it is very likely to form new trade protection measures, the Chinese chemical fiber industry that accounts for more than 60% of the world's total production capacity must re-examine the relationship between development and environmental protection. The two solutions to the coordinated development.
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