According to analysis, fluctuations in cotton prices have created a dilemma in the entire industry chain, and next year or reproduction of price increases, cotton purchases have entered the peak season. Farmers who expect cotton prices to rise are coming from a deserted acquisition market. “Economic Information Daily†reporter learned from Shandong and other places. In stark contrast to the rush to purchase in the same period of last year, the transactions between cotton farmers and acquisition and processing companies this year were in an impasse, seed cotton prices continued to decline, and some farmers even experienced panic.
Analysts believe that due to the weak basis of cotton production and the substantial increase in production costs, price fluctuations have caused the entire industry chain to suffer, and the impact on cotton farmers has been the greatest, which has seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, some cotton production areas With continued decline, there may be another surge of cotton prices next year.
Falling cotton buying season is cold. "October and November are the peak seasons for cotton acquisition. The cotton area should be a busy scene, but this year it is very deserted." Du Fu, expert on cotton issues at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, told the Economic Information Daily "Reporters, investigations in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places found that the transactions between cotton farmers and acquisition and processing companies have reached an impasse.
Dezhou, Shandong, is one of the country's key cotton planting areas. This year, 1.6 million mu of cotton is planted. At present, the city's seed cotton picking has reached more than 95%, due to low cotton prices, cotton farmers reluctant to sell a serious psychological, sales progress is less than 10%.
Compared with last year, this year's cotton prices fell sharply, and the country’s temporary collection and storage of stocks has increased the reluctance of cotton farmers to sell their goods. The latest rural policy implementation report released by the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture stated that this year's cotton prices have skyrocketed and fell sharply and fluctuate sharply. From March’s historic high price of 30,733 yuan/ton, it has dropped sharply to August’s 19,329 yuan/ton. Later, with the introduction of the state's provisional reserve plan, the cotton price stabilized and stabilized.
Since the official launch of the State's temporary purchase and storage on September 8, the policy effect has gradually weakened. According to the data from the China Cotton Association, China's cotton price index (grade 328) was 19,286 yuan per ton on November 7, which was already significantly lower than the temporary purchase and storage price of 19,800 yuan per ton. At the same time, the national seed cotton discount price was 8.36 yuan/kg on November 7th, which was 0.33 yuan/kg lower than the price when the stock was officially launched on September 8.
According to the analysis of the China Cotton Information Network, with the arrival of the new cotton market in recent days, the price of seed cotton has declined to a certain extent, which has caused farmers who have worked hard for half a year to panic. Last year's high prices were naturally gone forever, but the country’s reserve and reserve base prices have not been implemented in some places. Some local cotton farmers have reported that the price of seed cotton has fallen below 4 yuan/kg.
Tang Jingyu, manager of Shandong Liaocheng Changrui Cotton Textile Products Co., Ltd., said that the current price of cottonseed continues to fall, Liaocheng area has fallen to about 1 yuan/kg, so the purchase price of seed cotton has also declined, and the better cotton is only about 4 yuan. The market price of the fourth lint price is only around 17,600 yuan. At present, the price of 32 ordinary yarns is only around 27,000 yuan. Although there has been no apparent drop, it has been in a weak position. The market is in a very poor condition. Inventory in many spinning mills in the Liaocheng area has started to increase.
Huang Hongyu, deputy general manager of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the new year's cotton purchase price was higher and lower, because the textile cotton market was sluggish. Even with the protection of the national reserve price, the cotton collected in the previous period would also There is a loss, so the acquisition will be reduced.
In addition, the quality of cotton also affected the progress of the acquisition. In Texas, for example, local tertiary cotton accounts for about 40% in normal years, and fourth-grade cotton accounts for about 40%. The proportion of tertiary cotton in this year is less than normal, and the proportion of poor-grade fifth-grade cotton is significantly higher than normal.
The price of cotton, which has affected cotton farmers as the biggest shock last year, once encouraged the cotton and textile industries, and the industry chain has achieved good returns both upstream and downstream. The current low price of cotton has caused textile companies, cotton companies and cotton farmers to face difficulties.
As an industrial raw material product, the cotton industry chain is very long. In the downstream of the cotton industry chain, the days of textile companies are somewhat affected by the global economic downturn. According to the latest survey conducted by the China Cotton Association, consumption in the international market has been sluggish, textile prices have declined from the previous period, and cotton textile enterprises' finished product inventories have continued to increase. In order to quickly withdraw funds and maintain the normal operation of liquidity, most enterprises will set aside sales.
According to the transaction data of China's foreign trade “wind vane†Canton Fair, textile and apparel companies generally reflect that the confidence of orders is not strong because the world economy has not yet emerged from the shadow of the financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis has continued to deteriorate, and the operating costs of companies have been rising.
Ma Junkai, Dezhou City Cotton Association of Shandong Province, told the “Economic Information Daily†that spot cotton prices have continued to decline since mid-September, causing a certain impact on the downstream market. Weaving and apparel customers are not willing to purchase, resulting in obstruction of cotton yarn sales. Continue to go lower. At present, the mainstream transaction price of C 32S cotton yarn in Texas is around RMB 27,200/ton, which is reduced by RMB 700/ton over half a month ago. The sales of cotton yarn are slow, and the average operating rate is only about 70%. Cotton yarn production enterprises are in trouble again.
The days of the cotton business are not too bad. The latest report released by China Cotton Information Network stated that although there are deposits and withdrawals, the new phenomenon still exists. On the one hand, the acquisition and processing costs of cotton enterprises have been put to the test, and many companies have had a game between income collection and non-collection. On the other hand, In some areas, the grade of seed cotton is not high, and it is difficult for enterprises to make storage after processing.
For cotton farmers, analysts pointed out that from the international market consumption to the entire industrial chain of domestic cotton production, the farmers’ bargaining power is the weakest and the impact is even more pronounced.
It is understood that the commodity rate of cotton reached more than 98%, accounting for more than 17% of the cotton farmers' income in the cotton area, and the cotton income in the Xinjiang cotton area accounted for 37% of the household income of the peasant households. After the ups and downs of the price, the cotton farmers had hoped that the cotton would sell for a good price in the new year. However, the result was that the market had not recovered.
Mu Yingchang, a villager in Lusong Village, Botou Town, Zhanhua County, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, said that according to the current price of 4.1 yuan per kilogram, cotton in one mu of land can only be sold for 1,435 yuan. If people are asked to pick, one mu of land will need to be paid. The labor cost is 315 yuan, basically no money has been made. In the face of the bleak optimism of the business situation, textile companies are trying to overcome the difficulties by replacing cotton with chemical fiber, reducing the use of cotton, and choosing imported cotton. It is understood that the current increase in imported cotton than before, Australian cotton, Mexican cotton, Indian cotton tentacles, and prices are better than domestic cotton, a large amount can also be negotiated.
Industry sources revealed to reporters that because textile companies hope to use imported cheap cotton, the Textile Industry Association recently proposed to the State Council to cancel the sliding tax. This person believes that since the implementation of the sliding tariff tax in 2005, it has played a positive role in the development of the cotton industry and protecting the interests of farmers. If the sliding tax is lifted, the US subsidized cotton and India's low-cost cotton will have a great impact on the Chinese cotton market.
Concerned about the price increase next year or set off a wave of "Economic Information" reporter found that this year's cotton prices have seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, some cotton production areas continued to decline. Industry sources worry that the supply of cotton will continue to decrease next year, and a wave of cotton prices may set off again. Huang Hongyu believes that even if the current prices of cotton farmers are willing to plant, textile companies cannot afford the current market conditions, mainly due to problems in demand, coupled with high labor costs in China's agricultural production and textile production, globally, and India, Compared with other countries such as Southeast Asia, Pakistan does not have a comparative advantage.
The rapid increase in materialization and labor costs has become a burden on the shoulders of cotton farmers. Some farmers calculated a bill for the reporter. This year, the output per acre of cotton was about 100 pounds lower than that of last year, and the maximum amount was 350 pounds. One mu of land in chemical fertilizers and other seeds cost 500 yuan, 500 yuan per mu land contracting costs.
In Binzhou and Dongying, Shandong, the labor cost for picking cotton rose from 0.6 yuan per catty last year to 0.9 yuan to 1.3 yuan, while the labor cost for picking in Texas rose from 35 yuan to 60 yuan per day. Only picking up labor costs will reduce the farmers' income per mu by about 300 yuan. Many farmers are slow to pick cotton due to their unwillingness to hire workers.
The 15 mu of land used by the villager Tang Menghua in Liheyan Village, Shuiwan Township, Wudi County, Shandong, is used to grow cotton. However, due to the great fluctuations in the price of cotton in recent years, he has contracted 12 acres of land for others to grow corn and other crops. "The remaining 3 acres of land next year will not necessarily be planted with cotton. If the income is too low and the risk is high, contracting land to one mu of land will also result in an 800-yuan contracting fee. Although there is not much, there is no risk."
Ma Junkai introduced that in recent years, the area of ​​cotton planting in Texas has fallen sharply from year to year, from 2.9 million mu in 2008 to 1.6 million mu this year. At present, more than 20% of cotton fields in Dezhou have been replaced with cotton. It is estimated that the cotton planting area in 2012 will be reduced to about 1.4 million mu.
The current cotton production is a concern for Du Fu, who has long been engaged in cotton research. She believes that the production base of the supporting industry is extremely incompatible with the important position of the industry. According to her research, the scale of farmer households supporting industrial development is very small, and the average cotton planting area per household is only about 4 mu. The labor force in the cotton area is mainly elderly people and women. The average age of the cotton-growing labor force exceeds 48 years old, which determines its low level of education, and its access to information sources is backward. Every price fluctuation is a great disaster for cotton farmers.
Du Fu suggested that the future way of cotton is to strengthen domestic support policies such as scientific and technological input, high production, etc.; to promote the development of cotton farmers cooperatives, encourage large households to participate, let everyone work together to expand the market; at the same time, it is necessary to plant acreage in saline and alkali lands and beaches. To fight for food with people, not to struggle with food, in order to survive.
Analysts believe that due to the weak basis of cotton production and the substantial increase in production costs, price fluctuations have caused the entire industry chain to suffer, and the impact on cotton farmers has been the greatest, which has seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, some cotton production areas With continued decline, there may be another surge of cotton prices next year.
Falling cotton buying season is cold. "October and November are the peak seasons for cotton acquisition. The cotton area should be a busy scene, but this year it is very deserted." Du Fu, expert on cotton issues at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, told the Economic Information Daily "Reporters, investigations in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places found that the transactions between cotton farmers and acquisition and processing companies have reached an impasse.
Dezhou, Shandong, is one of the country's key cotton planting areas. This year, 1.6 million mu of cotton is planted. At present, the city's seed cotton picking has reached more than 95%, due to low cotton prices, cotton farmers reluctant to sell a serious psychological, sales progress is less than 10%.
Compared with last year, this year's cotton prices fell sharply, and the country’s temporary collection and storage of stocks has increased the reluctance of cotton farmers to sell their goods. The latest rural policy implementation report released by the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture stated that this year's cotton prices have skyrocketed and fell sharply and fluctuate sharply. From March’s historic high price of 30,733 yuan/ton, it has dropped sharply to August’s 19,329 yuan/ton. Later, with the introduction of the state's provisional reserve plan, the cotton price stabilized and stabilized.
Since the official launch of the State's temporary purchase and storage on September 8, the policy effect has gradually weakened. According to the data from the China Cotton Association, China's cotton price index (grade 328) was 19,286 yuan per ton on November 7, which was already significantly lower than the temporary purchase and storage price of 19,800 yuan per ton. At the same time, the national seed cotton discount price was 8.36 yuan/kg on November 7th, which was 0.33 yuan/kg lower than the price when the stock was officially launched on September 8.
According to the analysis of the China Cotton Information Network, with the arrival of the new cotton market in recent days, the price of seed cotton has declined to a certain extent, which has caused farmers who have worked hard for half a year to panic. Last year's high prices were naturally gone forever, but the country’s reserve and reserve base prices have not been implemented in some places. Some local cotton farmers have reported that the price of seed cotton has fallen below 4 yuan/kg.
Tang Jingyu, manager of Shandong Liaocheng Changrui Cotton Textile Products Co., Ltd., said that the current price of cottonseed continues to fall, Liaocheng area has fallen to about 1 yuan/kg, so the purchase price of seed cotton has also declined, and the better cotton is only about 4 yuan. The market price of the fourth lint price is only around 17,600 yuan. At present, the price of 32 ordinary yarns is only around 27,000 yuan. Although there has been no apparent drop, it has been in a weak position. The market is in a very poor condition. Inventory in many spinning mills in the Liaocheng area has started to increase.
Huang Hongyu, deputy general manager of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the new year's cotton purchase price was higher and lower, because the textile cotton market was sluggish. Even with the protection of the national reserve price, the cotton collected in the previous period would also There is a loss, so the acquisition will be reduced.
In addition, the quality of cotton also affected the progress of the acquisition. In Texas, for example, local tertiary cotton accounts for about 40% in normal years, and fourth-grade cotton accounts for about 40%. The proportion of tertiary cotton in this year is less than normal, and the proportion of poor-grade fifth-grade cotton is significantly higher than normal.
The price of cotton, which has affected cotton farmers as the biggest shock last year, once encouraged the cotton and textile industries, and the industry chain has achieved good returns both upstream and downstream. The current low price of cotton has caused textile companies, cotton companies and cotton farmers to face difficulties.
As an industrial raw material product, the cotton industry chain is very long. In the downstream of the cotton industry chain, the days of textile companies are somewhat affected by the global economic downturn. According to the latest survey conducted by the China Cotton Association, consumption in the international market has been sluggish, textile prices have declined from the previous period, and cotton textile enterprises' finished product inventories have continued to increase. In order to quickly withdraw funds and maintain the normal operation of liquidity, most enterprises will set aside sales.
According to the transaction data of China's foreign trade “wind vane†Canton Fair, textile and apparel companies generally reflect that the confidence of orders is not strong because the world economy has not yet emerged from the shadow of the financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis has continued to deteriorate, and the operating costs of companies have been rising.
Ma Junkai, Dezhou City Cotton Association of Shandong Province, told the “Economic Information Daily†that spot cotton prices have continued to decline since mid-September, causing a certain impact on the downstream market. Weaving and apparel customers are not willing to purchase, resulting in obstruction of cotton yarn sales. Continue to go lower. At present, the mainstream transaction price of C 32S cotton yarn in Texas is around RMB 27,200/ton, which is reduced by RMB 700/ton over half a month ago. The sales of cotton yarn are slow, and the average operating rate is only about 70%. Cotton yarn production enterprises are in trouble again.
The days of the cotton business are not too bad. The latest report released by China Cotton Information Network stated that although there are deposits and withdrawals, the new phenomenon still exists. On the one hand, the acquisition and processing costs of cotton enterprises have been put to the test, and many companies have had a game between income collection and non-collection. On the other hand, In some areas, the grade of seed cotton is not high, and it is difficult for enterprises to make storage after processing.
For cotton farmers, analysts pointed out that from the international market consumption to the entire industrial chain of domestic cotton production, the farmers’ bargaining power is the weakest and the impact is even more pronounced.
It is understood that the commodity rate of cotton reached more than 98%, accounting for more than 17% of the cotton farmers' income in the cotton area, and the cotton income in the Xinjiang cotton area accounted for 37% of the household income of the peasant households. After the ups and downs of the price, the cotton farmers had hoped that the cotton would sell for a good price in the new year. However, the result was that the market had not recovered.
Mu Yingchang, a villager in Lusong Village, Botou Town, Zhanhua County, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, said that according to the current price of 4.1 yuan per kilogram, cotton in one mu of land can only be sold for 1,435 yuan. If people are asked to pick, one mu of land will need to be paid. The labor cost is 315 yuan, basically no money has been made. In the face of the bleak optimism of the business situation, textile companies are trying to overcome the difficulties by replacing cotton with chemical fiber, reducing the use of cotton, and choosing imported cotton. It is understood that the current increase in imported cotton than before, Australian cotton, Mexican cotton, Indian cotton tentacles, and prices are better than domestic cotton, a large amount can also be negotiated.
Industry sources revealed to reporters that because textile companies hope to use imported cheap cotton, the Textile Industry Association recently proposed to the State Council to cancel the sliding tax. This person believes that since the implementation of the sliding tariff tax in 2005, it has played a positive role in the development of the cotton industry and protecting the interests of farmers. If the sliding tax is lifted, the US subsidized cotton and India's low-cost cotton will have a great impact on the Chinese cotton market.
Concerned about the price increase next year or set off a wave of "Economic Information" reporter found that this year's cotton prices have seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, some cotton production areas continued to decline. Industry sources worry that the supply of cotton will continue to decrease next year, and a wave of cotton prices may set off again. Huang Hongyu believes that even if the current prices of cotton farmers are willing to plant, textile companies cannot afford the current market conditions, mainly due to problems in demand, coupled with high labor costs in China's agricultural production and textile production, globally, and India, Compared with other countries such as Southeast Asia, Pakistan does not have a comparative advantage.
The rapid increase in materialization and labor costs has become a burden on the shoulders of cotton farmers. Some farmers calculated a bill for the reporter. This year, the output per acre of cotton was about 100 pounds lower than that of last year, and the maximum amount was 350 pounds. One mu of land in chemical fertilizers and other seeds cost 500 yuan, 500 yuan per mu land contracting costs.
In Binzhou and Dongying, Shandong, the labor cost for picking cotton rose from 0.6 yuan per catty last year to 0.9 yuan to 1.3 yuan, while the labor cost for picking in Texas rose from 35 yuan to 60 yuan per day. Only picking up labor costs will reduce the farmers' income per mu by about 300 yuan. Many farmers are slow to pick cotton due to their unwillingness to hire workers.
The 15 mu of land used by the villager Tang Menghua in Liheyan Village, Shuiwan Township, Wudi County, Shandong, is used to grow cotton. However, due to the great fluctuations in the price of cotton in recent years, he has contracted 12 acres of land for others to grow corn and other crops. "The remaining 3 acres of land next year will not necessarily be planted with cotton. If the income is too low and the risk is high, contracting land to one mu of land will also result in an 800-yuan contracting fee. Although there is not much, there is no risk."
Ma Junkai introduced that in recent years, the area of ​​cotton planting in Texas has fallen sharply from year to year, from 2.9 million mu in 2008 to 1.6 million mu this year. At present, more than 20% of cotton fields in Dezhou have been replaced with cotton. It is estimated that the cotton planting area in 2012 will be reduced to about 1.4 million mu.
The current cotton production is a concern for Du Fu, who has long been engaged in cotton research. She believes that the production base of the supporting industry is extremely incompatible with the important position of the industry. According to her research, the scale of farmer households supporting industrial development is very small, and the average cotton planting area per household is only about 4 mu. The labor force in the cotton area is mainly elderly people and women. The average age of the cotton-growing labor force exceeds 48 years old, which determines its low level of education, and its access to information sources is backward. Every price fluctuation is a great disaster for cotton farmers.
Du Fu suggested that the future way of cotton is to strengthen domestic support policies such as scientific and technological input, high production, etc.; to promote the development of cotton farmers cooperatives, encourage large households to participate, let everyone work together to expand the market; at the same time, it is necessary to plant acreage in saline and alkali lands and beaches. To fight for food with people, not to struggle with food, in order to survive.
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