Cotton cattle to the bears to a new round of "inventory backlog" or come

Last week (4.25-4.29) due to the sharp decline in international spot prices, the domestic large-scale textile mills continued to downgraded the impact of lint purchase prices, domestic cotton spot prices fell sharply, market purchases and sales continue to deserted, textile mills continue to stop production or cut production, some textile mills leave One week to two weeks want to calm down to deal with the current market situation. From the Canton Fair, it was learned that orders received by companies were mainly short-listed and small-order. The new orders index in the PMI index announced on May 1 decreased, indicating that domestic demand has weakened. The average weekly price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 27,812 yuan per ton, which was a decrease of 1,215 yuan from the previous week; the price of 229 grades was 29,277 yuan per ton, down by 1,183 yuan; and that of 527 grades was 25,370 yuan per ton, down by 1,021 yuan. During the same period, the electronic cooperation will lighten up and the focus will continue to explore.

First, the domestic spot: Cotton cattle to bears, drought in some areas affect the emergence of cotton.

The Chinese cotton price index, which represents the domestic cotton spot price, fell sharply last week, the biggest drop since the beginning of the year, and there was no progress in market transactions. Only the urgently needed textile mills purchased a small amount of lint, and other textile mills still did not make up the bank. Last week, Shandong Weiqiao Textile lowered its purchase price of lint cotton by 2,000 yuan for three consecutive times, adjusted 329 yuan to the factory price of 25,500 yuan/ton, 429 levels of 25,200 yuan/ton, and 427 levels of 24,800 yuan/ton. The company had five consecutive months in the month. The purchase price of lint was downgraded, and the cumulative decline for the month has reached 3,000 yuan per ton; the spot price is so low that it is understood that there are still more than 100 vehicles to the factory for daily delivery. In view of this situation, the enterprises in the south do not agree that the spot price of cotton is already lower than the cost of the enterprise, and it is difficult for enterprises to sell at a reasonable price. The cotton enterprises and cotton merchants who have cotton in Xinjiang or cotton in the third grade have a slightly better attitude and suspend sales in Guanhou City; however, most cotton merchants have a large number of grade 4 cotton in their hands. Enterprises are afraid of the closure of the textile mill, unless it is cash settlement or Acceptance **, otherwise it is difficult to be willing to sell. It is understood that in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, there has been an off-season power shortage, and steel mills have experienced power curtailment. The textile mills have not yet been specifically embodied, but the off-season power shortage in the south is likely to affect the textile industry. Some of the yarns sold today are blended and 80-100 high count yarns, and the sales of carded yarns are bleak.

In late April, the cotton in Xinjiang, the Yellow River and the Yangtze River entered the seeding stage until the seedling stage. Most of the cotton areas had less precipitation, which was unfavorable for spring cotton sowing. Less precipitation, poor soil moisture in the northern Hubei and Anhui Huaihe areas is not conducive to the sowing of cotton and other crops and seedling growth, 850,000 acres of cotton in Hubei can not be transplanted.

Second, the electronic match: lighten up the amount, continue to hang upside down.

Last week (4.25-4.29), the transaction volume of electronic cotton blending transactions in the national cotton trading market was 93,700 tons, an increase of 5,660 tons compared with the previous trading week. The weekly order quantity decreased by 19,460 tons and the accumulated order quantity was 68,000 tons.

Zhouyi has the following characteristics: First, the total turnover of the week has increased, the average daily volume of 18,740 tons, compared with the average daily turnover of the previous week increased by 1,132 tons, with the exception of MA1107 contract volume has been reduced, other contracts The transaction volume has been increased, with the volume of contracts in recent months, MA1105 and MA1110 in the far month increasing even more. 2. The order quantity in the week was significantly reduced. Except for the increase in the orders of MA1107 and MA1110, the order quantity of the rest of the MA contracts had been reduced. The contract reduction in recent months was the largest. The market focus was on the alternation between the new and old years; The highest price for the merger was MA1108 contract of 27,800 yuan, and the lowest price of MA1110 contract of 23,700 yuan; Fourth, when the weekly average price of Zhou Shenghe MA contract continued to fall sharply, the monthly contract price fell more than 1,000 yuan, the average weekly price of MA1105 contract was 26569 yuan, Below the same period CCIndex328 grade cotton 1243 yuan / ton, the phenomenon of inversion is still continuing.

Third, the international market: the spot price continued to fall, concerned about US cotton sowing.

The US cotton export contract was cancelled for three consecutive weeks. The southern hemisphere cotton was listed on the market and the price was relatively low. Demand from the textile mills was deserted and the recent trend of other agricultural products was weak, which caused the cotton futures to decline further. Over the weekend, the weather in Texas in the United States was dry, and the delta encountered heavy rain, supporting the long-term contract. In the southern United States, several southern states were hit by tornadoes. According to the survey conducted by this site, there is no news of damage to the new cotton in the southern cotton region. The worst-hit Alabama now has less than 10% of the area sown, and Texas, the largest cotton district in the United States, is still in a state of drought. During the week, the average price of ICE cotton contract in May contract was 179.28 cents/lb, down 9.75 cents/lb from the previous week, and the average price of July contract was 158.04 cents, down 12.93 cents/lb from the previous week; The average price of cotton spot price Cotlook index was 182.85 cents/lb, down 31.38 cents/lb from the previous week.

Fourth, the market outlook:

April 29, National Development and Reform Commission issued by the end of March national industrial enterprise finished product inventory data show that the index rose by 23.2% year-on-year. The latest PMI index released on May 1 declined after the segment recovered last month. The new orders index and the new export order index fell by more than 1 percentage point, indicating that domestic demand and external demand are insufficiently motivated. In other words, “they can’t be sold. "The effect will continue to plague all walks of life. It can be said that currently the textile mills are facing three problems. The first domestic inflation situation is still worrying. The raw material price fluctuates greatly and the company's procurement risk increases. Second, the downstream demand is weak and the company's inventory is under pressure. Third, the capital and credit are strained. The agency expects that the reserve requirement ratio will rise again in May and the central bank will raise interest rates again.

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