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During the Spring Festival, the external disk, especially the oil price, did not change much. The trading atmosphere of the internal disk TA was weak, the installation did not change unexpectedly, and the overall performance of the industrial chain was light. Yisheng (Ningbo) 2.2 million tons/year device was inspected and repaired according to plan. It is expected to be 2 weeks. The post-holiday resumption of downstream polyester is mostly during the period of February 4-15. The supply and demand pattern of TA in February is still similar to the pre-holiday estimate. The social inventory in January and February will be increased by about 450,000 tons, but social inventory. The current absolute value and expected growth in the future are both low in the same period of the previous year. On the cost side, Japan and South Korea PX factory fires, involving more than one million tons of capacity maintenance for about 2 weeks, PX spot prices rose, while ACP talked at 900 US dollars / ton in February, the cost side continues to rise, PTA (5764, 28.00 , 0.49%) The spot still maintains a pattern of easy rise and fall.
On the operational suggestion, after a period of consolidation before the holiday, the TA rose again after the holiday, and the trend pattern maintained a rising trend. In addition, although the basic supply and demand were loose but stronger than in previous years, and the cost end was raised again, the TA still maintained an easy rise. Difficult to fall. According to the time period of the last rising market, it has entered the second half of the rising cycle. The previous trend can continue to be held. You can wear the 10-day moving average or the RSI historical high or the 5785 appropriate take-profit in the 5-day moving average. Empty positions can be added when they fall below the 5-day moving average. for reference only.
PTA
PTA production and inventory
In January, coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of the PTA industry chain was mainly flat. The spot PTA rose by 220 yuan/ton, the TA05 contract rose by 200 yuan/ton, and the price rose steadily, but the growth rate was still relatively low compared with other industrial products. In terms of production, there are fewer installations throughout the month, and only sporadic devices are temporarily parked due to unexpected failures. The average monthly load in January is around 78%, and the monthly output is about 305-3.1 million tons.
On the demand side, the downstream polyester entered the Spring Festival overhaul in the second half of January, and the demand for TA dropped moderately. The load in January was about 81.5%, and the output of polyester was 315-3.2 million tons. The demand for TA was 270-275. Ten thousand tons. Obviously, the supply of TA in January was seriously oversupplied, and only about 350,000 tons of social stocks were accumulated in January.
In February, the supply and demand situation of TA is expected to improve compared with that of January. On the one hand, the polyester factory will enter the return to work after the holiday, on the other hand, there will be annual maintenance arrangements for the large parts of the TA, and the small devices will also have sporadic maintenance. Judging from the known maintenance plan, Yisheng's annual production of 2.2 million tons of TA units is expected to be overhauled for about 2 weeks, while Fujian Jialong's annual output of 600,000 tons is also planned for maintenance. The Pengwei Petrochemical 900,000 tons/year device has signs of resumption of production, and it is expected that there will be qualified products in the second half of February. The overall load of TA is reduced by nearly 5%, and the output in February is about 2.65 million tons.
On the demand side, according to the previous maintenance plan, the polyester factory resumed work gradually between February 6th and 15th. Therefore, it is estimated that the polyester load will be around 78% in the whole month in February, and the monthly output will be around 3 million tons, corresponding to TA. The demand is around 2.55 million tons. Overall, the social inventories accumulated about 100,000 tons in February, plus 350,000 tons in January. Considering the net export of TA and non-polyester demand, the monthly social inventory is about 450,000 tons.
According to the comprehensive assessment, the supply and demand of PTA in January and February is loose, and the social inventory is about 450,000 tons. In view of the supply and demand situation in previous years, the social inventory of PTA in January-February is increasing, and the relative increase in 2017 is relatively small. It is only about 450,000 tons, and in 2014 and 2015, it has increased social inventories of more than 550,000 tons. In addition, the absolute value of social stocks at the end of 2016 is not high, only about 1.6 million tons, so although the supply and demand of TA in January and February is loose, However, compared with previous years, the supply and demand structure is still good.
PTA corporate profit
The monthly average price of PTA spot in January was 5,306 yuan/ton, which was 164 yuan/ton higher than that in December 2016. The average monthly price of PX spot was 884 US dollars/ton CFR China Taiwan. The ACP in January was 850 US dollars/ton, PTA processing was poor. Calculated monthly, the current purchase is now around 580 yuan / ton, ACP buyers around 672 yuan / ton. Corporate profits have improved significantly from December.
In February, in terms of PTA cost, the ACP reached US$900/ton in February, up by US$50/ton from January, and ACP cost increased by RMB270/ton. The main reason is that there were accidental fires in the two PX factories in Japan and South Korea in January, involving more than one million tons of PX production capacity, and the maintenance time was about one to two weeks. After the factory failure, the PX price also rose quickly. As of last Friday, the CFR China Taiwan PX price was $919/ton. In addition, 2017 PX maintenance in Asia is scheduled to be in March-May, and the maintenance in February is relatively small. At the same time, the PX production capacity is nearly 2 million tons this year. In the future, PX supply and demand are tight, and PX prices are easy to rise and fall, which makes PTA cost support is relatively solid. In February, the average monthly price of PTA spot may continue to rise, and due to the overall accumulation of social inventory, the possibility of a large increase in processing margin is unlikely.
PTA downstream - polyester factory
In January, the price of downstream polyester products showed a high level of decline. The price gradually fell from the beginning of the month. Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the terminal buying and buying, the price also showed a significant decline. Only the terminal appeared on the individual trading day at the end of the month. Stocking. Most of the time, the trading atmosphere was light, with an average of around 75% for the whole month, and the stock of polyester products increased significantly. In terms of polyester chips, the price trend is generally stable. In terms of monthly average price, the semi-light slice is at 7653 yuan/ton, and the light slice is at 7522 yuan/ton, which is 161 yuan/ton and 108 yuan higher than December 2016 respectively. Ton.
In terms of polyester filament, the price trend showed a high level of decline. As of the end of the month, POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F and DTY150D/48F dropped 150 yuan/ton, 805 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively. In terms of cash flow, the sliver turned negative and the filament profit shrank to 100-300 yuan/ton.
In the production and sales of polyester filament yarns, due to the terminal holiday and the buying and selling, the production and sales fell back in January, and the monthly average was only about 75%. Only some trading days showed terminal stocking, and production and sales rebounded. Inventories, the inventory of several large polyester filament yarns increased significantly. On average, the inventory of POY, FDY and DTY was 5.86 days, 11.08 days and 14.89 days respectively, which was 3.47 days and 7.06 days higher than that of December 2016. And 6.43 days.
In February, on the supply of polyester, from the current maintenance plan, the polyester factory was mostly re-worked between February 4th and 15th, and the polyester load was reduced to 75% before the holiday. The polyester load in February was maintained at around 78%. The terminal textile rework will be slower in the future, and most textile factories are scheduled to resume work after Lantern Festival. In addition, pre-holiday textile factories generally have stocking, mainstream stocking in 10-15 days, some in the vicinity of a month, there are also a few due to the difficulty of returning goods only stocked in a week or so. In view of the slower return of the terminal and the more stocking before the holiday, the production and sales are still in a low state. In terms of polyester prices, supply and demand are loose, and polyester filament prices may continue to fall.
PTA downstream - textile terminal
In January, the traditional off-season and New Year holidays, Textile City, 600790, buy volume dropped steadily in early peak 6 million meters, currently only around 4 million meters, similar to the situation in previous years, after the high point of the season, the overall market turn weak Head, the probability of a new upward breakthrough in February is not too big, but since March, it has entered the spring and summer peak season, and the volume of light textile city has increased significantly. In addition, the price of chemical fiber fabrics in Shengze area has weakened overall, and it is expected to remain weak in February.
Linkage of PTA with other varieties
In January, the overall range of the crude oil market fluctuated. At the beginning of the month, the agreement of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the non-OPEC oil-producing countries came into effect. The US dollar was boosted by a series of strong economic data. In addition, the US announced that the unexpected surge in gasoline and distillate stocks also dragged down the price of oil. Saudi Arabia has cut production to fulfill the news of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cuts, and oil prices have not fallen. In the middle of the month, a record high crude oil export in southern Iraq caused the market to worry about the OPEC's production cuts. However, the fall of the US dollar and the news of Russia's production cuts still provide some support for oil prices. The US dollar fell to The oil price rebound brought good, but due to the pessimistic expectation of Russia's crude oil production in the second half of the year and the expansion of production by US oil producers, the oil price rebounded little, and the oil price was mainly shocked throughout the month.
From the correlation coefficient between TA main contract and WTI oil price, the correlation coefficient has rebounded recently, the absolute value is still low, and the guiding significance is limited. However, the sharp changes in oil prices, especially after the domestic market closes, will still rise. Influence the short-term trend of TA.
Trend
During the Spring Festival, the external disk, especially the oil price, did not change much. The trading atmosphere of the internal disk TA was weak, the installation did not change unexpectedly, and the overall performance of the industrial chain was light. Yisheng (Ningbo) 2.2 million tons/year device was inspected and repaired according to plan. It is expected to be 2 weeks. The post-holiday resumption of downstream polyester is mostly during the period of February 4-15. The supply and demand pattern of TA in February is still similar to the pre-holiday estimate. The social inventory in January and February will be increased by about 450,000 tons, but social inventory. The current absolute value and expected growth in the future are both low in the same period of the previous year. On the cost side, Japan and South Korea PX factory fires, involving more than one million tons of capacity maintenance for about 2 weeks, PX spot prices should rise, while ACP talks at 900 US dollars / ton in February, the cost side continues to rise, PTA spot is still easy to maintain Ups and downs.
After a period of consolidation before the holiday, the TA rose again after the holiday, and the trend continued to rise. In addition, although the fundamental supply and demand were weak, but stronger than in previous years, and the cost side rose again, the TA still maintained an easy rise and fall. .
Source: China Petroleum 601857, buying and Chemical
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