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The A-share market was sharply adjusted on Monday, and some insurance institutions were discouraged from facing the “golden pitâ€. After Qianhai Life Insurance and Evergrande Life’s “short-selling†behavior on A-shares were successively named by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the position of insurance capital stocks showed a 180-degree reversal, from the previous “do not rule out the increase†to “will withdraw from the opportunity†.
At the same time, insurance companies are trying to adjust the business structure of the debt side and the investment strategy of the asset side. The China Securities Journal reporter was informed that some insurance institutions began to study and judge whether there is a similar risk in equity investment, and made some adjustments to the equity investment strategy. The “sweeping†strategy directly turned into “distributionâ€, including funds. The entrusting party checks and confirms the compliance of the source of insurance funds, finds out whether there is hidden risk in the account, and whether the next step in investing in the listed company will cause market disputes.
Analysts believe that the recent regulatory measures will exert some pressure on the cash flow of the relevant insurance companies. If the rolling issue of policy liabilities is blocked, it may face liquidity risk. As the China Insurance Regulatory Commission strengthens the supervision of universal insurance and short-term and sustainable business, the growth of universal insurance has slowed significantly, and the placard behavior may be further suppressed.
Insurance capital stock reversal
Insurance funds may not realize that in the winter of 2016, this traditional placard season, which is expected, will be different from the past. Until the supervision of the shot, the market shock, the plot of insurance stocks suddenly reversed. Evergrande Life was interviewed and suspended to entrust the stock investment business. Ampang Assets advertised China Construction 601668, and bought (601668, shares were concerned by the exchange, and Qianhai Life’s universal insurance ushered in the supervision letter and an examination.
Regulators publicly criticized the practice of individual insurance, and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission sent two inspection teams to Qianhai Life Insurance and Evergrande Life Insurance to regulate corporate governance, business development and investment operations. In terms of market performance, investors who have followed the insurance in the “wonderful winter†have not received much dividends recently. After the risk of "short-selling" signs are stopped, long-term value investment will test the patience of more people; and under the big Yinxian on the 12th, the relevant stocks that were previously optimistic about insurance are not spared.
The most striking thing is the attitude of insurance funds in the process of increasing the shareholding of listed companies in 2016. In 2015 and even earlier, in the report on changes in equity disclosed by listed companies, in the column “Whether the information disclosure obligor intends to continue to increase in the next 12 monthsâ€, the insurance funds as the information disclosure obligor will usually be checked. "Yes". In this year, Sunshine Insurance advertised Yili shares 600887, when buying (600887, shares), even if it was clearly stated that "the future 12 months will not increase the holding of Yili shares", it did not completely eliminate the market for insurance or have more attempts. question.
For individual stocks, the voice of "retreating" insurance has emerged. On December 9, Qianhai Life Insurance issued a statement on its official website saying that it started investing in Gree Electric Appliances 000651, Buy (000651, stocks) as early as 2014, and based on the market and Gree fundamentals at different points in time. Analysis, buying and selling Gree stocks, recently Qianhai Life Insurance has been reported and concerned, promised not to increase the holding of Gree stocks in the future, and will gradually withdraw according to market conditions and investment strategies.
From "possible overweight" to "optional exit", such sudden changes have become the focus of attention. A number of industry insiders told China Securities Journal that the 180-degree reversal of the insurance stock market sentiment was related to the short-term speculation of some institutions and the current A-share market and macro environment. In order to avoid more touches on the red line, it is reasonable to take measures to avoid appropriate evasion.
Adjust the "sweeping" strategy to hedge
Although insurance funds are one of the indispensable protagonists in the A-share market in the long run, agencies have recently strengthened their investment judgments and risk controls. The insurance asset management believes that the behavior of the universal insurance account is not standardized or the investment is too aggressive. After all, the insurance industry is a minority. For most market participants, it is still the insurance industry to insist on the rational allocation of equity assets with a compliant fund account. Mainstream.
However, under the premise of strict regulatory requirements and unpredictable market conditions, the insurance agency's strategy has indeed changed. Dong Zheng (a pseudonym), the head of the investment business of a medium-sized insurance company, said that compared with previous years, there is nothing special about the increase or even holding of A-shares in the fourth quarter compared with previous years, but individual insurance funds have disrupted the market by hot money. Concerns from all parties have in turn caused some pressure on the secondary market for insurance investment. After Evergrande Life was interviewed, the company conducted a self-examination and conducted research and evaluation on whether there were similar risks in investing in stocks. Dong Zheng said: "The space that can be mastered by direct investment is relatively large, so the problem is not big. In terms of entrusted investment, the company actively communicates with the trustee. During this period of time, the operation needs to be particularly cautious, unless it has already held a section. Time does have the need to make a profit, otherwise as long as the stock price is still stable, do not make a quick and fast exit, which is mainly for the consideration of avoiding market risks."
There are more than one institution that is jealous. Xu Chu (pseudonym), head of an insurance management company in Shanghai, told the China Securities Journal that there were already investment managers who planned to increase some positions in the near future and reduce some of their shares. However, a series of subsequent regulatory news came out, making the risk control department pay more attention to the changes in the stock pool and positions than before, and also make the investment manager cautious in operation.
Xu Chu said that after the China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a supervision letter to Qianhai Life Insurance and Evergrande Life Insurance, the internal organization of the company also made some adjustments to the equity investment strategy, mainly to check with the fund entrusting party and confirm the compliance of the insurance fund source. Sexuality, whether there is a hidden risk in the account, and whether the next step in investing in a listed company will trigger market-sensitive disputes.
"For the insurance, at the end of the year, it was originally a good time to 'sweep the goods' A shares, and there are indeed some stocks that are worthy of the land, but no one wants to enter when the outside world pays attention to the insurance placards, so it is expected With the implementation of more regulatory policies, from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the phenomenon of insurance capital placards will obviously converge. But this does not mean that the insurance investment market is 'stunned', nor does it mean that the insurance will weaken equity investment. Dong Zheng said.
The placard will be more cautious
Perhaps no one can accurately calculate the liquidity of a long-term Yinxian line locked up on the 12th, but the aggressive insurance funds may indeed be under tremendous pressure. Orient Securities 600 958, bought analyst Tang Zipei expected, recent regulatory measures on the insurance company's cash flow will be involved in a certain pressure. Qianhai Life Insurance added an additional 60.5 billion yuan in deposits to policyholders last year, reaching 72.1 billion yuan in the first 10 months of this year. Considering that the policy liability duration is short, if the policy banned for too long, it will make the existing products difficult to connect after maturity.
Tang Zipei believes that from the follow-up extreme situation of short-term debt maturity, if the stock price of a large number of configured equity positions falls sharply and triggers the solvency bond of the insurance company, the insurance company needs to do so to draw the capital injection from the shareholders, otherwise it will form a payment. Risk, a large area of ​​insurance liability default; and if the rolling issue of policy liabilities is blocked, it may face liquidity risk.
Haitong Securities 600,837, buy (600,837, shares) analyst Sun Ting said that the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has intensively introduced a series of policies to limit and regulate universal insurance, effectively control the disorderly growth of universal insurance, and improve the industry premium structure. As the China Insurance Regulatory Commission strengthened the supervision of universal insurance and medium and short duration business, the growth of universal insurance significantly slowed down. From January to October, the new payment for insurance policy (mainly for universal insurance) was 1.05 trillion yuan, and the annual cumulative growth rate was greatly reduced from 214% in March to 74% in October. At present, most of the universal insurance settlement rates have dropped to 5.0%.
Sun Ting believes that in the second half of 2016, most of the small and medium-sized insurance companies such as Fude Life Life, Huaxia Life Insurance, Guohua Life Insurance and Zhongrong Life Insurance continued to experience negative growth in monthly premiums, and their placarding ability and willingness have dropped significantly. Some small and medium-sized insurance companies may face pressure from cash flow pressure and solvency adequacy, and placards will be further suppressed.
Regulatory re-examines the universal insurance and insurance investment, how much imagination space for insurance equity assets? The answer given by many insiders is that this will make the use of insurance funds more standardized in the long run, and the effect of “knocking the mountain and shaking the tiger†will be very obvious. In particular, insurance funds that have always been striving for stability are expected to shrink significantly in terms of placards. Even if you control the investment account under the placard, you will carefully consider the timing of the stock selection. At the same time, both Hengda Life for the National Technology 300077, BUY (300077, stock it), pillars of the new material 002,082, to buy (002,082, stock it) and other stocks "quasi placards", before the sea life or universal insurance funds to use stocks, What the market should pay attention to is whether its funds are excessively leveraged, and whether the universal insurance account is compliant, rather than whether the insurance is a barbarian itself.
"The recent regulatory attitude has reversed the trend of insurance investment, but if the market pushes the tide and the final effect is overkill, then both insurance and ordinary stock market investors may face losses." An insurance industry insider who declined to be named said that the regulation In the process of insurance, the market began to demonize individual phenomena, which is obviously worrying. The investigation and punishment of illegal insurance funds should be carried out quickly, but we cannot ignore the insurance funds that are close to 13 trillion yuan. Only a few are really used for stock market investment, and even a few are really radical short-selling.
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