Investor risk appetite falls
In the case of a significant increase in bearish pressure, the weekly index futures continued to oscillate and adjust. The CSI 500 futures index, which is more directly affected by the risk preference fluctuations, is weaker than the other two major index futures.
Economic and liquidity are facing an inflection point
From the perspective of commodity futures performance, the market's worries about the marginal weakening of the economy are still fermenting, and the September 1801 contract for rebar fell by nearly 10%. In terms of news, under the influence of factors such as the downgrade of China's rating by overseas institutions and the return of the renminbi to the weak, coupled with the re-upgrading of the property market regulation, investors' concerns about the peak of the inventory cycle have been further amplified. However, from the high-frequency indicators of the six major power generation coal consumption we tracked, the cement price, the daily average crude steel output, the land supply and the transaction, the economic kinetic energy is still at a stable level, and there is no sign of stall. We believe that the equipment investment renewal cycle will start, which will drag down the hedging of the inventory cycle, and the economic performance will remain stable in the third and fourth quarter of this year.
Near the end of the third quarter, the market worried about the 2.25 trillion yuan interbank deposit receipts. At present, the biggest impact point has passed. From the trend of money market interest rates, R007 fell back from a high point on September 19. The DR007 center moves up, but the amplitude is limited. Although the “de-leverage†tone continues, the central bank has recently achieved a net release in the open market for two weeks. The bottom-up idea is still strong. At the end of the third quarter, the capital fabrics are “surprisingâ€.
Overseas, investors still have some concerns about the Fed's contract in October. However, market liquidity relies on the central bank's base currency on the one hand and economic activity on the other. This year, the economic trends of the major economies in the world have improved, and the heat of microeconomic activities has warmed up, which is conducive to expanding the currency through credit and other means, and ultimately affecting the financial market. This will significantly compensate for the lack of liquidity brought about by the contraction of the central bank's base currency. We believe that the current "funds shrinkage" problem that investors are worried about is more due to emotional negative effects and limited substantive impact.
Period index
This week is the last week of the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. According to past practice, market trading will turn light, and holding shares or holding money will become the focus of market discussion. However, from the performance of the market over the years, the stock market did not have obvious holiday effects (such as falling after the holidays, etc.). The current market uncertainty is mainly from overseas.
Due to the expectation of economic turning point and liquidity crunch, the futures index is on the downside. In the process of falling index and investor risk appetite, large-cap stocks such as banks that have been fully adjusted in the early stage have re-established as market stabilizers. The consumer sector, which has both value and safe-haven properties in the secondary market, has recently been sought after by funds. However, the spot structured market is difficult to support the index to form a synergy. It is expected that the futures index will be dominated by digestive pessimistic expectations, and then it is expected to see a rebound after the expected positive returns. (Author: Guotai Junan Futures)
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Article Keywords: futures central bank bearish
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